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2011年10月30日

●elasticity of fertility

The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists
Guinnane (JEL 2011)
abstract:
The historical fertility transition is the process by which much of Europe and North America went from high to low fertility in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This transformation is central to recent accounts of long-run economic growth. Prior to the transition, women bore as many as eight children each, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes was positive. Today, many women have no children at all, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes is zero or even negative. This paper discusses the large literature on the historical fertility transition, focusing on what we do and do not know about the process. I stress some possible misunderstanding of the demographic literature, and discuss an agenda for future work.
続きを読む "elasticity of fertility"

●chrysanthemum

もってのほか:

続きを読む "chrysanthemum"
2011年10月27日

●caffein

続きを読む "caffein"
2011年10月24日

●age-dependent tax

The Surprising Power of Age-Dependent Taxes
Weinzierl (RES 2011)
abstract:
This paper provides a new, empirically driven application of the dynamic Mirrleesian framework by studying a feasible and potentially powerful tax reform: age-dependent labour income taxation. I show analytically how age dependence improves policy on both the intratemporal and intertemporal margins. I use detailed numerical simulations, calibrated with data from the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics, to generate robust policy implications: age dependence (1) lowers marginal taxes on average and especially on high-income young workers and (2) lowers average taxes on all young workers relative to older workers when private saving and borrowing are restricted. Finally, I calculate and characterize the welfare gains from age dependence. Despite its simplicity, age dependence generates a welfare gain equal to between 0·6% and 1·5% of aggregate annual consumption, and it captures more than 60% of the gain from reform to the dynamic optimal policy. The gains are due to substantial increases in both efficiency and equity. When age dependence is restricted to be Pareto improving, the welfare gain is nearly as large.
続きを読む "age-dependent tax"

●impact of fraud on market

Discoveries of fakes: Their impact on the art market
Bocart and Oosterlinck (2011EL)
Abstract:
This paper shows that before (after) fakes’ discoveries, artworks are less (more) likely to be sold through Sotheby’s or Christie’s. Prices only react negatively with a lag, suggesting that sellers try to postpone their sales as long as possible.
続きを読む "impact of fraud on market"
2011年10月22日

●property right

Optimal Property Rights in Financial Contracting
Ayotte and Bolton (2011 RFS)
Abstract:
続きを読む "property right"
2011年10月20日

●eating Kobe 3

で,もらった柚味噌を,パンに付けてみる:

続きを読む "eating Kobe 3"
2011年10月19日

●Beijing souvenirs 2

前に書いた北京土産はいまいちだったけれど,中央電子台ブランドのこの月餅は


上から順に,5種類のナッツ,塩卵,黒胡麻,栗,小豆。どれも型が非常に美しいだけでなく,おいしい。これでちょっと北京のお菓子を見直した。

続きを読む "Beijing souvenirs 2"
2011年10月17日

●eating Kobe2

神戸土産の,ca marcheとイスズベーカリーのパン:

なかなか(゚д゚)ウマーでした。グリッシーニなんか特によし。オサレなお店の割には,そんなに高くない。

こちらは,中津川の栗きんとん:

安定してうまい。神戸じゃないけれど。

こちらは,くぼさんにいただいたしたたり:

神戸じゃないけれど,相変わらず,細かい直方体のような崩れ方と,黒糖のコクと和三盆のさわやかさが絶妙にブレンドされた甘みがすぱらしい。

続きを読む "eating Kobe2"
2011年10月16日

●saichi

秋保土産は,例によって例のごとく,さいちのもの:

おはぎ(あんこと胡麻),秋保でんがく。おはぎは,きな粉が凶暴なので,それを避けて代わりに田楽を試してみる。要するに,味噌焼きおにぎりなんだけれども,これが意外にうまい。おはぎは,例によって例のごとく甘じょっぱくパワフルだけれど,おいしいです。うむ。

続きを読む "saichi"

●Hagi seminar

3日前から昨日まで,我が社のGCOEの萩セミナーに参加:

司会を何度かやらされたけれど,僕の報告は,"Nature Disaster"というセッションの中で,

Rescuing Victims and Rescuing TEPCO

続きを読む "Hagi seminar"
2011年10月15日

●returns to education

Estimating Marginal Returns to Education
Carneiro, Heckman and Vytlacil (AER 2011)

The abstract is:

This paper estimates marginal returns to college for individuals induced to enroll in college by different marginal policy changes. The recent instrumental variables literature seeks to estimate this parameter, but in general it does so only under strong assumptions that are tested and found wanting. We show how to utilize economic theory and local instrumental variables estimators to estimate the effect of marginal policy changes. Our empirical analysis shows that returns are higher for individuals with values of unobservables that make them more likely to attend college. We contrast our estimates with IV estimates of the return to schooling. (JEL I23, J24, J31)

続きを読む "returns to education"
2011年10月12日

●annual conference 2011

今年の学会は,報告1本+司会1本が回ってきたので,ちとまじめに出ないとorz 同じく司会の当たったカサハラと,「俺らも司会が回ってくる年になったんだねぇ」と。

で,個別報告司会。報告者は昔から知っていたのだけれど(←これが伏線...),こういうPoliSciな研究をやっている人がほとんどいないので,そういうのをいくつか書いてきている(パブコメ以降,数本)僕が司会回ってきたんだろう。

続きを読む "annual conference 2011"
2011年10月11日

●eating Osaka and Kobe


続きを読む "eating Osaka and Kobe"
2011年10月07日

●re: ham

以前いただいたのと同じハムを再びいただいたので,いろいろと調理:

続きを読む "re: ham"
2011年10月06日

●Beijing souvenirs 1

大紅袍:

続きを読む "Beijing souvenirs 1"
2011年10月04日

●hedonic

来月にまた北大行てきます:

11/04
時間 15:00 -
場所 北海道大学経済学部会議室(301号室)
報告者 森田果氏(東北大学大学院法学研究科・准教授)
タイトル 「放射能汚染による損害賠償におけるヘドニック・アプローチ」

(北大民事法研究会)

続きを読む "hedonic"
2011年10月03日

●law school admission

Predicting Lawyer Effectiveness: Broadening the Basis for Law School Admission Decisions
Shultz and Zedeck (Law and Social Inquiry 2011)
The abstract is:
Law school admission decisions are heavily influenced by a student's undergraduate grade point average (UGPA) and Law School Admission Test (LSAT) score. These measures, although predictive of first-year law school grades, make no effort to predict professional competence and, for the most part, they do not. These measures also create adverse impact on applicants from underrepresented racial/ethnic groups. This article describes the rationale for and process by which we explored new tests to predict lawyer effectiveness rather than law school grades and reports results of a multiyear empirical study involving over 3,000 graduates from Berkeley Law School and Hastings College of the Law. Tests measuring personality constructs, interests, values, and judgment predicted lawyering competency but had little or no adverse impact on underrepresented minority applicants. Combined with the LSAT and UGPA, these broader tests could assess law applicants on the basis both of projected professional effectiveness and academic indicators.
続きを読む "law school admission"
2011年10月02日

●eating Beijing 3

An-Pan-Manと名前のついたパン@東方新天地B1F。知財的にどうかと思うのに加えて(もうちょっと正確に言うと,この図柄では○ラえもんに見える),きっとまずいに違いないとの確信を抱きつつ,げっつ:

続きを読む "eating Beijing 3"

●jogi

天気が良かったので,久しぶりに定義山食い倒れツアーに行ってみる:


ここから本編。

続きを読む "jogi"